The Keeling Curve shows how carbon dioxide concertation in our atmosphere has risen exponentially in recent history and was made using data from NOAA’s Mauna Loa Observatory. The current administration is looking to end the lease on this observation site.  Source: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

One of the problems with writing about national policy right now is how quickly things are changing. I submit articles to the paper a week before they come out and typically write them a few days before that, which has made me hesitant to closely detail program changes that could be irrelevant or outdated a mere week later. News stories outrank each other quickly, and top headlines change within hours. That said, the changes that the current administration is making to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are sweeping and consequential for everyone. What is happening with NOAA now will impact our understanding of climate change and how we prepare for disasters for years to come.

NOAA’s mission is “to understand and predict changes in climate, weather, ocean, and coasts, to share that knowledge and information with others, and to conserve and manage coastal and marine ecosystems and resources.” The National Weather Service (NWS) is part of NOAA, and meteorologists depends on this agency to make local weather predictions. Though you may not realize it, your local weather forecast depends on data from the NWS’s 18 satellites, nearly 100 weather balloon launch sites, over 10,000 cooperative weather stations, and more than 200 ocean buoys. The NWS sends this data to the 122 forecasting offices in the United States, where meteorologists generate weather forecasts. Private weather service like AccuWeather rely on NWS data. NWS also sends out alerts and advisories to warn of dangerous conditions, such as hurricanes, tornadoes, forest fires, and floods.

In February 1,300 employees were dismissed from NOAA as part of a federal cost-cutting initiative by the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE. NOAA has now been tasked with cutting another 10% of its employees, which would mean that almost 20% of NOAA’s entire workforce would be cut. The February cuts alone have had a significant impact; NWS service offices in Albany, New York, Gray, Maine, and Kotzebue, Alaska announced that they would stop launching weather balloons due to lack of staffing. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii runs 24-7, monitoring for tsunamis and earthquakes that might cause a tsunami and issuing warnings. Recent cuts include a position from the team there, which was made up of only 12-members. If more staff are let go then these changes will continue, adding up to big losses in our country’s ability to predict weather and warn people of coming natural disasters.

DOGE is also looking to end dozens of NOAA’s leases, including the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hilo, Hawaii. This observatory has been tracking the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere since 1958. This data was used to create the famous Keeling curve (see image), which showed the first significant evidence of rapidly increasing Carbon Dioxide (CO2) levels in earth’s atmosphere. The Mauna Loa facility is listed on a spreadsheet of buildings operated by NOAA where leases may be terminated as soon as this May. It is unclear what would happen to CO2 monitoring if the observatory’s lease was terminated. We must continue to track the level of CO2 in our atmosphere, much as we monitor a human’s vital signs, to make predictions of the coming effects of climate change.

Here in Vermont the importance of accurate weather forecasts is self-evident. Farmers rely on an accurate weather report for crop planting. Road crews and your local plow guy rely on forecasts to plan for salting and plowing. Importantly, our emergency management professionals watch the weather and rely on warnings from the National Weather Service for flood events like those we saw in 2011 and 2023. Without that information, people would be in greater danger. Natural disasters will only increase due to climate change, and it is vital that we have an accurate idea of what to expect.

What you can do:

• Visit Vermont National Guard’s website to learn more about planning for natural disasters and emergencies, including how to receive emergency alerts and what items should be in a basic disaster supplies kit.

• Follow the progress of H.289, a Vermont bill that would remove the Climate Council’s authority to direct policy, making their role solely advisory. The bill would also replace the state’s renewable energy requirements with a clean electricity standard that includes nuclear power, potentially shifting projects away from solar and wind and towards nuclear. Contact your representatives to speak out against H.289.