By Jacob Chalif

Daily high temperatures show that 2024 is a record year for Woodstock, but if we cut carbon emissions it doesn’t need to get much worse. Image by Jacob Chalif / ERA5 and CMIP6 data

Despite the headlines, most of the time it doesn’t feel like the climate is changing that quickly. Our understanding of what constitutes a “normal” climate is deeply rooted in the idea of an individual’s “personal climate memory.” Unlike the climatologist’s “climate normals,” which are calculated over a 30-year span, our personal climate memory can stretch back as little as 5 years.

That is why it is all the more astonishing that this year’s weather has felt so breathtaking—and not in a good way. This past winter rarely hit the frigidity we are all familiar with, and the heat waves this summer have been suffocating.

Over the past couple of weeks, my house, which is without mini-splits or AC, might be said to lack conditions suitable for life. I—a climate scientist—naturally began to wonder how different this year’s weather truly is in Woodstock. It could be that my own preconceptions of climate change are biasing my perception, causing me to sense a bigger shift than there actually is. I also wondered what the climate here was like when many of my neighbors (whose complaints on the heat seem no less vociferous than mine) came to the area, and what we should expect in Woodstock going forward. So, I turned to the data!

Since I moved here in 2017

Over the seven years from 2017 to 2023, the average winter high in the Woodstock area was 32°F (just about exactly the freezing point). This past winter, meanwhile, the average winter high was 35°F.

A 3-degree increase may not seem that startling, but it should be. From 2017 to 2023, if we look at the three months from December to February, about 45 days each year exceeded the freezing point at least briefly. This winter, we had 59 days, which means we had at least two more weeks of melting temperatures this year than when I first moved here.

Moving onto the summer, from 2017 to 2023, the average summer high was 77°F. This summer that number goes up to 79°F, but this dataset only goes through July 9! Heat usually peaks in mid-July and then gradually falls through August, but we were already hotter this June than most summers are at their peak.

Since I moved here, there have been about 11 days a year when temperatures exceeded 85°F, a threshold above which the risk of heat-related injury goes up dramatically.

We are currently on track to have 22 days above 85°F by the end of this summer. It turns out that my perception is not wrong—this summer really is beyond the norm.

If I had moved here in 2000

Now, what if I moved here to ring in the new millennium back in 2000? Over the seven years from 2000 to 2006, the average winter high was 29°F and the average summer high was 74°F. During the winter, 32 days each December-February exceeded the freezing point and about 5 days per summer exceeded 85°F.

If I had moved here in 1960

I was born in 1999 but let’s suppose for a moment that I’ve seen a couple more revolutions around the sun, and that I moved here back in 1960. From 1960 to 1966, the mean daily high temperature was 74°F in summer, with about 4 days per year above 85°F—these summer statistics are very similar to 2000 to 2006. But in winter, the daily high was only 26°F, and only 27 days saw temperatures above freezing between December and February.

The upshot

It’s often said that winters are warming more rapidly than summers in Vermont, and the data backs it up. This winter was 6°F hotter than winters just 20 years ago, and 9°F hotter than winters in the 1960s. That increase has caused a doubling in the number of days with above-freezing temperatures compared to winters from 20 years ago, leading to greater snowmelt, muddy roads, and worse ski conditions.

In summer, the number of days with dangerously high heat has skyrocketed in recent years, and especially this year. I also examined the length of heatwaves, and they are growing longer. In short, it’s hot and it doesn’t let up.

The future

I think about climate change for a living—I’m still optimistic, and you should be, too. Globally, 2024 has been a landmark year for the climate, but don’t expect every year to be a record year like this one. There are a lot of conditions acting together that are causing a uniquely hot year.

Most importantly, if we act now to cut our carbon emissions, models say we can escape the worst of global warming. That means that when my grandkids move to Woodstock, the climate of 2080 could still resemble today’s.