Illustration by Anna Eshelman, NOAA Climate.gov.
El Niño developed in the tropical Pacific this June, and forecasts suggest that this year’s event is likely to become the strongest ever recorded. A stronger El Niño increases the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall, and other extreme weather events in many parts of the world. Combined with ongoing human-caused climate change, this event is likely to have far-reaching global consequences.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a climate pattern that happens roughly every two to seven years. The central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean becomes warmer than average, and the jet stream over the north Pacific Ocean shifts south. In the US, El Niño typically causes warm, dry winters in the northern half of the country, and wetter, colder winters in the south. Globally, El Niño events have the strongest influence on global temperatures during the year following their onset.
Why is this El Niño special?
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, there is a 97% chance El Niño will be either “strong” or “very strong,” with an 81% chance it will be “very strong.” Additionally, there’s a 97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027.
Many climate scientists are predicting that 2027 will break our global high temperature record. A strong El Niño has arrived on top of ocean warming from human-caused climate change. Climate change is likely to increase the frequency and strength of extreme El Niño events in the future. These stronger events can trigger sharper temperature spikes, prolonged droughts, more severe heatwaves, heavier rainfall, and a greater risk of disasters such as bushfires, floods, and crop failures.
This El Niño is expected to have similar–or even more severe–impacts as the 1997-1998 El Niño, which caused droughts and natural disasters around the world. That El Niño led to 23,000 deaths in weather disasters, increased poverty rates in some countries, and cost governments as much as $45 billion.
The Need for Climate Action
According to António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, “El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.”
He argues that “the only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all.”
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern, but its effects are amplified by human-caused climate change. The best thing we can do as individuals is to advocate and vote for renewable energy.